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标题: 今日俄罗斯文章 —— 特朗普能帮助结束乌克兰战争吗？ [打印本页]

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 07:26:32 标题: 今日俄罗斯文章 —— 特朗普能帮助结束乌克兰战争吗？

https://www.rt.com/news/600190-trump-ukraine-peace-plan/

内容重要

介绍特朗普的国家安全团队及其在乌克兰的和平计划

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作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:00:27

The likely next president of the US, Donald Trump, has signaled that he has a plan for bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. Or, at least, two of his advisers have such a plan. More importantly, they have submitted it to Trump. And most importantly, they have said that he has responded positively.

特朗普的两名顾问已经向特朗普提交了结束乌克兰战争的计划，并且得到了肯定的反应

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:01:38

As one of the plan’s authors has put it, “I’m not claiming he agreed with it or agreed with every word of it, but we were pleased to get the feedback we did.” It is true that Trump has also let it be known that he is not officially endorsing the plan. However, it is obvious that this is a trial balloon which has been launched with his approval. Otherwise, we would have either not have heard about it or it would have been disavowed.

这个计划可以视为特朗普的一种试探气球

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:07:23

The two Trump advisers are Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general, and Fred Fleitz, a former CIA analyst. Both held significant positions on national security matters during Trump’s presidency. Currently, both play important roles at the Center for American Security: Kellogg serves as co-chair and Fleitz as vice chair. Both, finally, are clear about their belief in what is perhaps Trump’s single most defining foreign policy concept: America First.

这两名顾问，一位是退役中将基思·克劳格，另一位是前中央情报局分析师弗莱兹。两人分别担任美国安全中心（一个智库）的共同主席之一和副主席。他们认为，特朗普最重要的外交政策概念就是：美国第一。

（编注：这两名顾问似乎与深层国家有一定联系）

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:09:35

Fleitz recently published an article asserting that “only America First can reverse the global chaos caused by the Biden administration.” For Kellogg, the “America First approach is key to national security.” The Center for American Security, finally, is part of the America First Policy Institute, an influential think tank founded in 2022 by key Trump administration veterans to prepare policies for his comeback.

弗莱兹最近撰文认为，“美国第一”的外交政策将扭转拜登政府带来的全球混乱

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:11:04

Clearly, this is a peace plan that has not come out of nowhere. On the contrary, it has not merely been submitted to Trump to receive his – unofficial – nod, it has also emerged from within Trumpism as a resurgent political force. In addition, as Reuters has pointed out, it is also the most elaborate plan yet from the Trump camp on how to get to peace in Ukraine. In effect, this is the first time that Trump’s promise to rapidly end this war, once he is back in the White House, has been fleshed out in detail. The adoption of the plan or any similar policy would obviously mark a massive change in US policy. Hence, this is something that deserves close attention.

这一计划如果被采纳，将标志着美国政策巨大改变

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:13:20

What does the plan foresee? In essence, it is built on a simple premise: to use Washington’s leverage over Ukraine to force the country to accept a peace that will come with concessions, territorial and otherwise. In the words of Keith Kellogg, “We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up’.” Since Kiev is vitally dependent on American assistance, it is hard to see how it could resist such pressure.

这个计划的关键是威胁基辅，如果不让步并接受和平，美国就切断援助

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:15:25

Perhaps to give an appearance of “balance” for the many Republicans still hawkish on Russia, the plan also includes a threat addressed to Moscow: “And you tell Putin,” again in Kellogg’s terms, “he’s got to come to the table and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.”

为了表现平衡，也会威胁莫斯科，如果莫斯科不来到谈判桌上，美国就会给基辅他们想要的一切

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:19:01

Yet it is obvious that, despite the tough rhetoric about Russia, the plan will cause great anxiety in Kiev, not Moscow, for two reasons. First, the threats addressed to Russia and Ukraine are not comparable: If the US were to withdraw its support from Ukraine, Kiev’s Zelensky regime would quickly not just lose the war but collapse. If the US were to, instead, increase its support for the Zelensky regime, then Moscow would respond by mobilizing additional resources, as it has done before. It might also, in that case, receive direct military assistance from China, which would not stand by and watch a potential Russian defeat unfold, because that would leave Beijing alone with an aggressive, emboldened West. In addition, Washington would, of course, have to weigh the risk of Russia engaging in counter-escalation. In sum, the plan threatens Ukraine with certain defeat, regime, and, possibly, even state disintegration; it threatens Moscow with a harder time – a type of threat that has no record of success.

但是，实际上，如果基辅离开了美国的援助，基辅就完蛋了。而美国给基辅再多的援助，充其量就会让俄罗斯日子难过一些，美国还会面临战争进一步升级的风险。所以新政策会给基辅带来更大的焦虑。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:20:33

The second reason the plan is bad news for Ukraine but not for Russia is that the peace it aims at is much closer to Moscow’s war aims than to those of Kiev. While the document that has been submitted to Trump has not been made public, American commentators believe that a paper published on the site of the Center for American Security under the title “America First, Russia, & Ukraine” is similar to what he – or his staff – got to see. Also authored by Kellogg and Fleitz, this paper, too, repeatedly stresses just how “tough” Trump used to be toward Russia. Plenty of strutting there for those who like that kind of stuff.

这一和平计划将更接近莫斯科的目标而不是基辅的目标

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:22:09

These statements, however, are balanced by an emphasis on what used to be called diplomacy: “At the same time,” we read, “Trump was open to cooperation with Russia and dialogue with Putin. Trump expressed respect for Putin as a world leader and did not demonize him in public statements … This was a transactional approach to US-Russia relations … to find ways to coexist and lower tensions … while standing firm on American security interests.”

特朗普将对与俄罗斯合作和对话持开放态度，并给予普京作为一个世界领导人应有的尊敬

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:24:36

That already is a tone that Kiev cannot but find disconcerting. Because under Biden, US strategy – and therefore that of the collective West – has been built not merely on an extremely belligerent approach (as if that were not bad enough already) but, more importantly and more detrimentally, on the obsessive idea that there is no alternative. Everything, to its adherents, is “appeasement” except constant escalation to “win.” There is no room for genuine quid pro quos and compromise. That attitude is vital to America’s unrelenting support for Ukraine and, in particular, the fact that it has crossed one red line (meaning those previously recognized by Washington itself) after the other, with no (good) end in sight.

在拜登时期，西方集团对俄罗斯采取了不妥协的极端敌视态度，越过了一条又一条红线，不知道怎么收场

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:28:23

本帖最后由远航一号于 2024-7-1 09:28 编辑

Hence, a Trumpist approach that is also anything but “soft” on Russia, while, however, acknowledging the possibility of de-escalation through negotiation is already a major departure from current US policy. You could even think of it as being inspired by the Reaganite foreign policy of the 1980s, which also combined pronounced “toughness” with a genuine readiness to compromise. Yet there would be one big difference: Toward the end of the Cold War, Washington was dealing with a pliable, even naïve Soviet leadership. That was a grave mistake – if made for mostly admirably idealistic reasons – that Russia’s current leaders see very clearly, are still angry about, and will not repeat.

特朗普的政策将是对现有政策的重大改变。从中可以看到里根政府在八十年代时对苏政策（强硬态度加务实妥协）的影子。但是现在的俄罗斯领导人不会像当时的苏联领导人那样天真和轻信。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:30:52

In the case of the war in Ukraine, this means that any settlement, even with a newly “transactional” Washington “coming to the table” would involve not one but two “tough” players: Moscow will not agree to any compromise that fails to factor in that it has gained the upper hand in this war. That, in turn, means that, beyond the basic Trumpist mood of conditional conciliatoriness, details will be decisive.

莫斯科不会接受任何一种不考虑到它已经在战争中占据上风的妥协。所以，细节将决定成败。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:38:28

Unfortunately for the Zelensky regime and fortunately for everyone else (yes, including many Ukrainians who won’t have to die in a proxy war anymore once peace comes), in that domain as well, the realm of the concrete and specific, the plan developed by Kellogg and Fleitz shows some progress. The authors, first of all, recognize important elements of reality that the current US leadership is either lying or in denial about: for instance, that this is a proxy war as well as a war of attrition, that Zelensky’s “10-point plan” (essentially a blueprint for what could only happen if Ukraine were to win the war, that is, never) “went nowhere,” and that Ukraine cannot sustain the war demographically.

对泽连斯基当局来说不幸的是，而对于几乎所有其他人（包括大多数乌克兰人）都幸运的是，这个（特朗普初步认可的）新计划考虑到了具体的实际情况：

这场战争是一场代理人战争，也是一场消耗战

泽连斯基的十点计划根本不值一提

乌克兰的人口无法支撑长期战争

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:44:48

They also acknowledge that Russia will refuse to take part in peace talks or agree to an initial ceasefire if the West doesn’t “put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period.” In fact, an “extended period” will not suffice; Moscow has been clear that never means never. But Kellogg and Fleitz may be formulating their ideas carefully with a view to how much their readers in America can take at this point.

乌克兰加入北约的问题将被长期推迟。莫斯科要求乌克兰永远不加入北约，永远就是永远。但克劳格和弗莱兹在撰写这一计划时也许考虑到美国（统治集团的）读者目前可以接受的程度。

（编注：这句话的意思是，一旦特朗普上台，乌克兰“永远”不加入北约的问题也可以谈判）

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:48:35

The plan also, again realistically, raises the option of offering a partial and, eventually, complete dropping of sanctions against Russia. Ukraine, on the other side, would not have to give up the aim of recovering all its territory, but – a crucial restriction – would have to agree to pursue it by diplomatic means only. The implication is, of course, that Kiev would have to give up de facto control over territory in the first place.

这一计划将提议部分解除对俄罗斯的制裁，并最终全部解除制裁。乌克兰不必正式放弃已失去的领土，但必须承诺将来只用外交手段来收复失地（也就是基辅必须接受事实上失去这些土地）。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:50:49

And there you have it: This is a proposal that, pared down to essentials, foresees territorial concessions and no NATO membership for Ukraine. It's no wonder that Kellogg and Leitz conclude their paper by admitting that “the Ukrainian government,” “the Ukrainian people” (that is sure to be an over-generalization, by the way), and “their supporters” in the West will have trouble accepting this kind of negotiated peace. We could add: especially after more than two years of an avoidable (as the authors also recognize) and bloody proxy war. Yet that tragedy has already happened. We can wish it had not, but we cannot undo the past. The real question is about the future. Kellogg and Leitz, and Trump as well, if he will follow such a policy, are right that the dying must end, and that the only way to make it end – as well as avoid further escalation, perhaps to global war – is a compromise settlement built on reality.

悲剧已经发生。但要结束悲剧并避免全球战争，就必须在现实基础上达成妥协。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 09:52:55

Tarik Cyril Amar is a historian and expert on international politics. He has a BA in Modern History from Oxford University, an MSc in International History from the LSE, and a PhD in History from Princeton University. He has held scholarships at the Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute and directed the Center for Urban History in Lviv, Ukraine. Originally from Germany, he has lived in the UK, Ukraine, Poland, the USA, and Turkey.

该文作者是德国历史学家

作者: xin 时间: 2024-7-1 11:19:02

特朗普上台是想换掉美国资产阶级政府以往热衷的世界政策，或者至少大幅度修改

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 11:31:56

xin 发表于 2024-7-1 11:19
特朗普上台是想换掉美国资产阶级政府以往热衷的世界政策，或者至少大幅度修改 ...

这应该是反映了美国大资产阶级的相当一部分要求调整内外政策

作者: 马列托主义者 时间: 2024-7-1 13:10:56

某些人又在做梦了，不信走着瞧

作者: 马列托主义者 时间: 2024-7-1 13:12:27

特朗普只会威胁要求欧洲多出钱
另外某些人认为欧洲的极右翼上台会退出援助，也是做梦，意大利新总理就是明证

作者: 隐秘战线 时间: 2024-7-1 13:22:08

本帖最后由隐秘战线于 2024-6-30 22:23 编辑

马列托主义者发表于 2024-6-30 22:10
某些人又在做梦了，不信走着瞧

封建托是死皮赖脸都不会认输的，这样的信用度没有人在乎你那苍蝇般的嗡嗡。另外未明子反对八小时工作制你怎么看？你不会装死吧？未明子可是很照顾你这种卷王奋斗X的

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 13:33:43

马列托主义者发表于 2024-7-1 13:12
特朗普只会威胁要求欧洲多出钱
另外某些人认为欧洲的极右翼上台会退出援助，也是做梦，意大利新总理就是明 ...

梅洛尼对于制止马克龙进行战争冒险起了一定作用

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-1 13:35:11

马列托主义者发表于 2024-7-1 13:10
某些人又在做梦了，不信走着瞧

我们如实转载重要的国际新闻评论

有什么走着瞧、坐着瞧的

作者: 马列托主义者 时间: 2024-7-1 13:35:18

特朗普放风不过是试图威胁欧洲，如果特朗普真的在俄帝没有什么让步下不援助乌克兰，欧洲就危险了，最后就是美帝自己危险了。

作者: 隐秘战线 时间: 2024-7-1 13:37:32

本帖最后由隐秘战线于 2024-6-30 22:38 编辑

马列托主义者发表于 2024-6-30 22:35
特朗普放风不过是试图威胁欧洲，如果特朗普真的在俄帝没有什么让步下不援助乌克兰，欧洲就危险了，最后就是 ...

特朗普比你聪明，一个大资本家怎么会比一个搞外贸的还搞不清楚利益呢

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2024-7-2 01:41:52

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/d ... wer-byers-schweller

美国《外交事务》杂志发表文章，指出特朗普将实行“现实主义”外交政策

越来越多迹象表明，美国大资产阶级将要进行内外政策调整

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